Loud Thinking

Posts Tagged ‘economy’

Honourable Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif Sahab,

Salaam.

While your government is increasing the size of the begging bowl, look what India is doing…!

A TOI eye opening news..!

Govt launches austerity drive, bans meetings in 5-star hotels
PTI | Sep 18, 2013, 08.37 PM IST

Chidambaram earlier met financial advisors of various ministries to impress upon them the need for austerity.

NEW DELHI: Government departments have been banned from holding meetings in 5-star hotels and officials barred from executive class air travel as part of a slew of austerity measures announced on Wednesday to cut non-plan expenditure by 10 per cent.

Aiming to restrict the fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14, the Finance Ministry has ordered all ministries and departments not to buy new vehicles, create new jobs or fill posts lying vacant for over one year.

It has also directed that the size of delegations going abroad should be kept at the “absolute minimum.”

The government has been introducing austerity measures since 2008-09, most recently in November 2012.

“Such measures are intended at promoting fiscal discipline, without restricting the operational efficiency of the government. In the context of the current fiscal situation, there is a need to continue to rationalise expenditure and optimise available resources,” the finance ministry said.

Finance minister P Chidambaram earlier said he had drawn a red line and would not allow the fiscal deficit to breach the target of 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14.

The various austerity measures helped the government to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.9 per cent of GDP in the previous financial year, against the budgeted target of 5.1 per cent.

The circular came a day after Chidambaram met financial advisors of various ministries to impress upon them the need for austerity. ———————————————————–

Mr. Prime Minister, one thing must be made clear to all your advisors that only foreign loans will not and never cure the ills of the Pakistan’s economy, for which we will also have to reduce our expenditures in a big way and not just in a cosmetic manner.

Wishing you all the best in your untiring efforts to put Pakistan back on the rails of recovery.

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

Lahore.

Sent from my iPad3 4G LTE

This has reference to the news item of 01 December 2012, by Mehtab Haider titled “Total debt scales Rs.14.5 trillion mark” published by the daily “The News” link :-http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-145837-Total-debt-scales-Rs145-trillion-mark

The gist of the above reveals the extremely precarious economic situation of Pakistan, as below.

1. Pakistan’s public debt and liabilities crossed Rs.13.5 trillion by end-September 2012, as per SBP data released on 30 November, 2012. However, a closer look reading of the data showed that the size of total debt is Rs.14.5 trillion.

2. According to SBP data total debt and liabilities at end of September 2012, touched $66.24 billion.

3. BY THE END OF JUNE 2012, PAKISTAN’S DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO STOOD AT 61.5%.

4. According to the former economic adviser Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan. “Even now, interest repayments are consuming 56 percent of the FBR’s revenue. And these unsustainable levels of public debt will be a burden on future generations who will service this debt through exorbitant taxation.”

5. Analysts say that irresponsible fiscal management, sharp depreciation of the Rupee (from Rs.60 to a dollar to Rs.97 to a dollar – in the last four years) and low economic growth have caused the surge in public debt.

In view of the foregoing, it is clearly evident that we have reached a stage, where even alarm bells ringing time has passed. The economy of Pakistan is not sinking, it has already sunk. Foreign exchange reserves are fast depleting.

{This piece was written in December, 2012 and now today (in the year 2013) the government has been forced to obtain loan from IMF to repay its old loan. This proves that we have no money to pay our liabilities. This situation in plain words is called bankruptcy.}

However, what is very alarming and strange that the entire government and the parliament is silent over the issue, as if, they are in collusion with each other, on (God forbid) this virtual economic demise of the country. Otherwise, at least a single person from the entire parliament would have raised his/ her voice, over violation of the binding on the government, for not exceeding the debt-to-GDP ratio over 60%. (Please refer para 3 above).

We should remember that USSR was not dis-membered, due to the violation or collapse of its geographical boundaries. Rather, it was the collapse of its economy, which destroyed a superpower overnight. The USSR broke down without firing of a single bullet, just due to its economic melt down.

If, even at this later stage, patriotic Pakistanis won’t raise their voice, over this virtual economic collapse of the country, then be ready, history will never forgive us, for our collective Harakiri.

No amount of military or nuclear power, can save a nation from its demise, due to the economic collapse. Yes, collective will power of its people, can save a nation from any crisis, but that too if, the people are not too late, as time and tide waits for none.

Although, Pakistan is in a perpetual state of war for more than a decade, yet, the government never acted in a manner, that would reflect even slight realisation on its part, to make its expenses in a more prudent manner. No austerity measures were imposed, to either reduce the size of the bloated cabinet, stop payments of foreign exchange to top government functionaries, who are entitled for such perks, or even restrict purchase of new cars etc.

This is extreme callousness with the nation. On the other side, high and mighty are enjoying benefits, which even a rich country like Switzerland, can not afford to its VIP’s; for example allowing instalment payment of power bills of their factories stretched over a period of 2000 YEARS, YES 2000 YEARS. The Pakistani VIP class is enjoying such facilities and benefits, which even the Queen of England would envy.

Now, business as usual can not be continued.

The economic treason with the state of Pakistan, by all the concerned, looks like a fit case for the patriotic people in the government, opposition (in and out of parliament) and the entire civil society, to demand the immediate formation of a very lean national government, which should impose an economic emergency; and also take necessary action on the question that “why all the concerned remained silent when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 60%, that too, few months back on 30 June, 2012.” Don’t forget, when the same problem was faced by the US government, even the salaries were not paid, till such time, President Barack Obama, got approval from the law makers, for enhancing the expenditures limit.

It will not be out of place to end this note, with quote of the Midwestern tycoon Warren Buffett, who once gave an easy solution to America ’s debt problem on CNBC:

“I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than three percent of GDP all sitting members of congress are ineligible for reelection.

FRESH TAIL PEICE DATED 17 AUGUST 2013.

THE NATION DEMANDS THAT THE PREVIOUS RULERS BE IMMEDIATELY ARRESTED AND TRIED FOR PUSHING PAKISTAN TO THE STATE OF BANKRUPTCY.

THE NATION ALSO DEMANDS THAT ALL THE ASSETS INSIDE PAKISTAN AND ABROAD OF THE ENTIRE LOT OF THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT’S TOP FUNCTIONARIES BE CONFISCATED AND THESE PEOPLE SHOULD ONLY BE ALLOWED TO COME OUT OF THE JAIL IF THEY AGREE TO REPAY THE PREVIOUS IMF LOAN OF $11.3 BILLION.

THE QUESTION IS SIMPLE WHY THE PEOPLE OF PAKISTAN SHOULD REPAY THE ODIOUS IMF LOAN OBTAINED AND UTILISED BY THE PREVIOUS RULES FOR THEIR OWN BENEFITS?

THE NATION ALSO DEMANDS AN IMPARTIAL JUDICIAL INQUIRY INTO THE ECONOMIC MURDER OF THE NATION WHEREIN WHEN GENERAL MUSHARRAF’s GOVERNMENT HANDED POWER TO THE PPP GOVERNMENT OUR LOAN LIABILITY IN THE YEAR 2008 STOOD AT $40 BILLION (PPP GOVT GOT SANCTIONED A LOAN FROM IMF WORTH USD 11.3 BILLION AND RECEIVED $7.6 BILLION SO AT THE END OF PPP GOVT THIS FIGURE SHOULD NOT HAVE GONE UP MORE THAN USD 48 BILLION) AND ONE USD WAS EQUAL TO PKR 60. WHAT HAPPENED TO PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY WHEN THE PMLN GOVERNMENT TOOK OVER IN JUNE 2013 ONE USD WAS SELLING FOR 100 PKR AND NATIONAL LOANS SHOT UP TO USD 67 BILLIONS?

A BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION:

WHAT IS THE SECRET OF UNACCOUNTED FOR INCREASE OF ABOUT 20 BILLION USD IN LOAN LIABILITIES OF PAKISTAN DURING THE FIVE YEARS (2008-13) OF PPP RULE?

Dear Mr. Ishaq Dar,

Your kind attention is invited towards the following news item titled “IMF extends zero interest rates on poorer country loans” published by the daily “Pakistan Today” on 23 December, 2012 detailed news available at the link :- http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2012/12/23/news/profit/imf-extends-zero-interest-rates-on-poorer-country-loans-2/

In this regard, as per my many earlier submissions to the PM and the entire nation, I am fully convinced, without an iota of doubt that it is sheer disaster recipe for the Pakistan’s economy, to seek loan (that too on an exorbitantly high rate of 3%) from IMF, to repay their old loan. Moreover, your argument that this was the only option to avoid a default, also do not hold water, as firstly, I have explained not one but many viable options in my earlier communications and secondly, default is better than the destruction of the very foundations of the nation’s economy. Hope you know very well that in the recent past, many countries have bravely negotiated with the international lending agencies and succeeded in getting reduction of up to 60% of their loans.

However, in Pakistan’s case our loan amount is increasing with an unbelievable speed. It was recently reported that when PPP government took over in 2008, our debt liability was $40 billions and now it has increased to much more than $60 billion.

The nations fails to understand that why you remained silent as PMLN’s financial expert and also as a senator, during the PPP tenure, when it crossed the LEGAL and constitutional limit of 6% debt to GDP ratio. This was such a grave violation of the law that had PMLN taken up this issue with the Supreme Court, the PPP government would have been immediately dismissed.

So how can you now absolve yourself from this financial mess, by just saying that you took over the government with nation’s economy in very bad shape?

Also, how can the history exonerate the PMLN in general and Mr. Ishaq Dar in particular, for not playing a pro Pakistan role when the PPP government was playing havoc, with the country’s economy?

As such, Mr. Ishaq Dar, there is only one way of atonement of our past acts of commissions and omissions, by not to further burden the nation’s economy with extremely and unprecedentedly expensive loans of IMF, lest the future generations may not have to say that “لمحوں نے خطا کی تھی صد یوں نے سزا پائ”

Kindly still there is time to explore other options to avoid IMF loan. Nothing is impossible. Where there is a will there is a way.

With best regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad
0321-9402157
Lahore.

Sent from my iPad3 4G LTE

Now our economic malaise has reached such a stage that business as usual, is going to jeopardise our statehood, not in years, but in months.

The degree of the sovereignty of a country, is directly proportional to the state of the economy of that nation. Actually, in constant growth & development lies our salvation. Secondly, we Pakistanis must know, that without any doubt, the …

The degree of the sovereignty of a nation is  directly proportional to the state of economy of that nation. Actually, in constant growth & development lies our salvation. Secondly, we Pakistanis must know  without any doubt, that the easiest and surest way of moving ahead, is to stand on our own feet. Foreign aid, can keep us afloat, but won’t allow us to swim.

Biggest factor in any victory is self confidence. Anti-thesis of terrorism is education, coupled with economic emancipation.

As such, the nation must embark upon the following agenda, to resurrect our economy without any further loss of time.

1. Request to all foreign donors for a 5 years moratorium, on all debt repayments by Pakistan. 

2. 20%  per annum reduction in all non-developmental government expenditures, plus total freeze in all perks paid from the national exchequer, involving foreign currency. 

3. Increase in productivity & exports with liberal tax relief to industry, commerce & trade.

4. Set a target for 20% per annum  increase in foreign remittances, by offering innovative incentives to expatriate Pakistanis.

5. Abolish FBR (which will alone increase income by Rs.500 billion) & impose flat 10% tax on all & every type of income, withour any exemption (except for the security forces personnel, whose salaries should be doubled with receipt of un-precedented increase in revenue, due to this formula). This will not only reduce income tax burden on salaried class ( with max. tax rate of 10%) but will also result in so much increase of revenues that government will not require any tax imposition  in the budget. Plus, the government will be able to give tax free salaries to all armed forces, rangers, police and other security agencies personnel, who are shedding their blood, in fighting the menace of terrorism, for our safe tomorrow.

6. Initiate steps (by imposing economic emergency) to bring each and every economic activity under document.  

Pakistan passed the 100 million subscriber milestone in Oct 2010, with five operators fighting for the market share day in & day out, but  still waiting for the introduction of 3G WCDMA technology (High Internet Speed Mobile Access with International Roaming),  to take the telecoms market to the much needed next level.

The 3G Licenses auctioned last year in our neighboring country fetched multi billion dollars, in license fee in addition to a similar amount of foreign direct investments, creating a spree of jobs for not only the highly educated, but also for the less educated  skilled hands, working on things like tower construction.

The question remains why we are shying away from this golden opportunity, to give the much needed life saving shot to our economy?

May be the reason lies in the situation, where the current operators are shying away from the investments that they would have to make, when the licenses are made available and are just keeping a few individuals at the right places “happy”, so that it is deferred, as long as they wish.

With the 3G services available in most of the countries of South Asia and even Africa, why  we are being deprived of the technological and economical benefits and playing the catch up game?

The 3G License or Spectrum auction, which is just like selling “air” is the easiest way to slightly mitigate the ever increasing unemployment rate in the country. Our peoples representatives in the both the houses should take this up seriously, to expedite the ever delayed process.

                                                                                        By A. Muiz Khan

                                         An update by the writer

Although, 100 Million subscribers may seem a big figure in absolute terms yet, in the backdrop of Pakistan, this amounts to only about 60% Mobile penetration; which is far from saturation, with some developed countries having around about the 100% mark. These figures are obtained after the implementation of the standard active subscriber definition in the industry, which has forced the operators to adopt data cleaning process, so the data comes mostly from the active subscribers, hence, a fairly accurate estimate.

Now, the point of adopting 3G is not necessarily to add new subscribers. But if 60 people out of 100 have mobile connections, then to make lets say initially, 15 people out of the active 60, to switch to using the new technology. This will generate new high profit margin revenue streams from data intensive applications, like video calling & HD Video streaming etc.

Now, we as a country can benefit from this situation, by putting the technology on the table for Sale. Surely the existing operators cannot shy away from spending on the candy bar, which will ensure a greater revenue stream for them. However, their aim is to delay it as much as possible, so that they do not have to take out cash at this moment of the financial crunch.

Once we put the technology or as stated in the article “AIR” on sale, we will get instant payments from the operators on acoount of license fee and as the race to launch the first 3G network kicks off to obtain the First-Mover advantage, huge FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) will take place in modernizing and building the network infrastructure, resulting in effective billions of dollars in earnings and creating thousands of jobs in the process.

In the recent auction of the 3G licenses in our neighboring country, only the licenses fee fetched close to USD 15 Billion, which is a huge amount in itself, excluding all the FDI and other positive impacts on the economy, like reduction in unemployment rate.

                                                                                       By A. Muiz Khan