Loud Thinking

Archive for the ‘Case for Pakistan’s Loan write off’ Category

IMF and Argentinian financial melt down.

The story of Argentina’s financial melt down reported today, as below:

[Argentina faces March deadline to Pay $ 30 billion.
Link:- https://www.dawn.com/news/1535971/argentina-faces-march-deadline-to-pay-30bn

Argentina is battling to avoid another situation like 2001 when it defaulted on $100bn, becoming a market pariah.

The country currently owes $311bn – more than 90 per cent of its GDP.

It’s hoping to renegotiate $195 billion, including the $44 billion it owes the IMF.]

is a clear warning and writing on the wall, which loudly announces that international loans are a sure recipe for financial disaster, economic melt down and bankruptcy of any nation, more so Pakistan, which is (for about 40 years) under unabated shadows of war and terrorism since 25 December 1979, when the USSR invaded Afghanistan and about which our own governor SBP said on 20 February 2020 that Pakistan stood with Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen and Ethiopia in terms of exports adding that with this trend, no country could be run successfully. The authenticity of Reza Baqir’s statement can be gauged with the fact that as on today (22 February 2020):

• One PKR was equal to 0.50 Afghani
  
• One PKR was equal to
  0.34 Sudanese pound
  
• 0.62 PKR was equal to 1 Yemeni Rial
  
• 4.87 PKR was equal to 1 Ethiopian Birr

In this regard, I have personally requested Dr. Zubair Khan [ who has approached the Supreme Court against very high interest rate of 13.25% https://tribune.com.pk/story/2159153/2-ex-imf-official-challenges-high-interest-rate-sc/?amp=1 ] to also take up the matter with IMF and the Supreme Court that although, Pakistan took IMF loans to repay their old loans, yet, IMF is charging service charges ($51.6 million over $6 billion) besides the INTEREST on its loans.

As such, Pakistan must immediately inform the IMF that under the circumstances the service charges must not be demanded from Pakistan, as a special case and in recognition of its almost four decades of sacrifices, as a front line state against the world’s war on terror in Afghanistan, resulting in almost a trillion dollars accumulated loss to its economy and opportunity costs, incurred for almost four decades, which also resulted in deaths of about seventy thousand civil and military persons and severe injuries to about three times of the fatalities.

In view of the foregoing, it is incumbent upon the world community to collectively help Pakistan, rebuild its total infrastructure, with a Marshall plan type scheme, to turn this country (which didn’t even demand overflight charges of about $400 billion from America and 49 other NATO countries in 40 years war on terror) into a bastion of peace and tranquility in the whole region, rather than again ditching Pakistan, as was done after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan.

Respected Mr. Imran Khan Sahab.

AoA.

Sir,

Your kind attention is invited towards the following link of a news item published by the daily “Telegraph” on 3 December 2019:

Link:- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/03/pakistani-tycoon-hands-50m-london-house-140m-accounts-record/

Your kind attention is also invited towards the following two paragraphs of the above mentioned news link:

1. The deal with the family of Malik Riaz Hussain did not find any guilt and will see the money “returned to the State of Pakistan,” a statement said.

2. He (Malik Riaz) said after Tuesday’s settlement was announced: “I sold our legal and declared property in UK to pay £190m to Supreme Court Pakistan against Bahria Town Karachi.

Mr. Prime Minister, it is clear without any doubt from the above news that the NCA of U.K. will return $190 million (confiscated from Malik Riaz Hussain in U.K.) straightaway to STATE OF PAKISTAN.

Sir, you as the top most custodian of every penny of the State of Pakistan must ensure that this recovery proceed of £ 190 million being handed over to the GoP by the NCA of U.K. is NOT returned back to Malik Riaz Hussain (on any pretext) and no one in your government is allowed by any trick or logic to AGAIN cheat the State of Pakistan, as already this £190 million was once stolen out of Pakistan.

Last but not the least, this nation of 220 million population specially thanks you for bringing back from overseas, its looted money, which was also the fulfilment of your biggest promise with the nation, for which you and your party deserves profound congratulations. Remember, Modi despite his tall claims, could not bring back a single penny, during his sixth year of continuous rule in India.

Best Regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

Respected Mr. Imran Khan Sahab

AoA.

Sir,

The entire nation bows it’s head before Allah (SWT) for your historic and extremely successful meetings with American leadership; and Pakistani diaspora in the USA, which has united the nation, in a manner witnessed earlier only once, when under your leadership, our team won the 1992 Cricket World Cup.

We all know that the sole aim and vision and mission of your life and the reason you joined politics, is to economically emancipate the teeming millions of Pakistan, who have been deprived of the bare minimum facilities and requirements of life.

These poorest of the poor 130-140 million Pakistanis, who are not able to earn even $1.90 per day (minimum world level poverty benchmark), firmly believe in your words that soon you will uplift them from poverty, at a speed faster than the Chinese attained success, in the same case.

In this regard, your efforts in launching EHSAS program and other such steps are good, but it will hardly make any visible impact in genuine relief for the poor population, because this continued poverty is the insurance for the affluence of the elite class (controlling every power and authority) in Pakistan, who thrive on corruption, special agreements (like IPP contracts and idle capacity payments in the USD on LNG terminals without any logic) amnesty schemes, devaluation of currency, theft of utilities and manipulations in terms of foreign/domestic loans, bank loan waivers etc. Just for your information you may check why $8.6 million was withheld by the IMF when it disbursed $1.0 billion tranche of loan to Pakistan, few weeks back.

However, today it was really a heartening news that your government is expected to appoint a specialised inquiry commission to examine the prudence of capacity payments, currency indexation and higher than permissible returns to all the IPPs.
Link:- https://www.dawn.com/news/1496516/inquiry-commission-proposed-to-examine-profits-of-ipps

In this connection, Dr. Ikramul Haq (advocate Supreme Court and International tax expert) has very aptly explained the crux of the mother of all reasons, for the continued poverty in Pakistan, in his article published by the daily “Business Recorder” dated 26 July 2019 titled “Making tax system functional”.

The relevant para of the above article is reproduced below:

Quote:
“The State needs to wage an all-out war against burgeoning black economy, money power and corrupt politico-administrative structures. This war must start from the mighty classes. The people of Pakistan have a right to know how these mighty sections of society amassed immense wealth without paying their due taxes.” Unquote.
Link:- https://fp.brecorder.com/2019/07/20190726500277/

Sir, in view of the foregoing, it is earnestly requested that as per the need of the hour, to strike at the system which feeds the elite class on the sweat and blood of the poor of our country; an Inquiry Commission under the chairmanship of Dr. Ikramul Haq may be formed to submit its findings and solutions on the fact that “How these mighty sections of society amassed immense wealth without paying their due taxes”.

Sir, unless you and your government has the tenacity and the will to wage an all-out war against the burgeoning black economy, money power and corrupt politico-administrative structures, no amount of interest free loans or EHSAS programs are going to liberate the down trodden Pakistanis, and mind you Sir, you are considered as the last hope, who can economically and in true sense, emancipate our teeming millions, whose numbers, unfortunately, have increased not decreased, in your past 11 months of government.

Best Regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

18 May 2019
How to stop an impending financial meltdown due to swift devaluation of PKR?

Updated on 2nd July 2019

Dear Mr. Imran Khan Sahab.

AoA.

Sir,

The current shattered state of economy of Pakistan, wherein, daily steep and unprecedented devaluation of PKR versus the USD, whose interbank rate was higher than the forex market rate a few days back and the Bloomberg has rated PKR as the worst performing currency of Asia, regularly crashing of stock exchange market, unimaginable jump in prices of daily items of use like lemon being sold at Rs.400 per KG, increase in rates of utilities on an unending and continuous basis, exponentially increasing costs of health and education, reflects only one thing that there was now virtually no effective government in Pakistan, to protect the rights of the hapless Pakistani masses from the tricks and vagaries of traders, businessmen, industrialists and bureaucracy of the country.

Sir, the entire population of Pakistan is in severe shock, depression and despondency, due to this sudden economic crisis, severely affecting every Pakistani who is desperately looking towards you as a competent and honest leader and above all a saviour of the rights of the masses of the Pakistanis, to act, and act fast, to the stem the rot, before this crisis turns into an economic meltdown.

According to Britannica.com “Public authorities face a variety of crises, such as natural disasters and environmental threats, financial meltdowns and terrorist attacks, epidemics and explosions, and information and communication technology (ICT) failures. Crises are not routine events (such as fires or traffic accidents). Crises are inconceivable events that often take politicians, citizens, and reporters by complete surprise. Crises occur when a community of people—an organization, a town, or a nation—perceives an urgent threat to core values or life-sustaining functions that must be urgently dealt with under conditions of deep uncertainty.”

Britannica.com further states that “These dramatic events create tough challenges for public authorities and their organizations. Critical decisions must be made and implemented under considerable time pressure and in the absence of essential information about causes and consequences. Even if the conditions for effective action are severely impeded, citizens expect governmental leaders and public authorities to safeguard them from the threat at hand.”

As such, extraordinary situations demands extraordinary steps.

Under the current scenario the people are fed up and no more ready to listen that Pakistan is suffering severe economic problems due to the loot and plunder of the past decade’s rulers, simply, because now Mr. Imran Khan is the ruler; and if any economic crime was committed in the past, why the responsible politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats are not arrested, their properties not confiscated and the national criminals put behind the bars, as yet, on any of such economic crime charges, by the PTI government?

People also ask why all past government players are roaming free (if they committed economic crimes) and entire burden of the economic crisis has been passed over to the masses, very conveniently by the PTI government, in the shapes of exorbitantly increased taxes EXTRA exorbitantly BACK BREAKING increase in the charges of gas, electricity and CNG rates.

Why NO ONE in your government of highly educated team of Advisors and Ministers has objected on the OGRA Gas Sale Price Notification dated 29 June 2019 on the following TWO points:

Why Engro and Fatima rate is about 33% of the rate of other fertiliser companies? For their new fertilizer plant investments; when these companies are already getting other benefits, rates reduction in gas feedstock seems to be an anomaly of uneven playing fields in comparison with other producers of fertilizers in Pakistan, as GIDC was also exempt for their fertilizer plants.

Secondly, sale quantity slabs are given in hm3, while cost per unit is in MMBtu? Is it deliberate effort to ensure public does not comprehend the quantum of increase? Sir, if you deeply study the increase in gas rates, astonishing facts will come to your knowledge that how much additional back breaking burden has been put over the middle and lower middle class population of Pakistan under the popular PTI government for making it the MOST UNPOPULAR CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT IN THE HISTORY OF PAKISTAN.

Does the PTI government wants to punish the poor masses for voting it to rule over the country, without taking to task even a single person of the past regimes for its economic crimes?

Moreover, PTI’s government can not absolve itself of all its responsibilities to improve the economic conditions of the masses, by going the easy and most cruel way of simply increasing rent, rates and taxes and devaluing the currency and then asking the people to give sacrifices, while people’s representatives are enjoying all the fruits of being in power.

People also ask why the PTI government has failed to reduce the massive/huge expenditures on the bureaucratic establishment and why advisors of the cabinet failed on their jobs and even then they have not been removed?

Why absolute austerity is not mandated in the government affairs by law, in these times of severe economic crunch?

Why people are not being told about the past government’s spendings of the huge foreign loans?

Why the energy audit of the IPP’s decided by the cabinet in its first meeting under Mr. Imran Khan as PM, has not yet been conducted?

In view of the foregoing crisis, created under PTI’s tenure of government, you may take all matters in your own hands, declare an economic or national emergency and form an Emergency Advisory Council of Pakistan (EACP) to:

~Devise, execute and monitor all related policies for economic turn around of Pakistan in the shortest possible time

~Immediate steps for stopping of funds leakages. In this regard, the World Bank has already estimated about $18 BILLION annual loss to the Pakistan’s economy due to the inefficient power sector. The World Bank has WARNED (repeat WARNED) the government against increasing power rates (I will add Gas rates also) as a tool to address fiscal challenges in the sector

~ Immediate steps for reviving industry, agriculture, trade and business with particular reference to services and IT sectors

~ Immediate steps for drastically reducing imports and doubling the exports

~Generation of additional revenues

This EACP should act like a war cabinet of the PM of Pakistan, as the current economic crisis is no less grave in its devastation, than a full fledged war. The following world renowned eminent experts, impeccably honest, highly capable and reputed personalities of Pakistan may be considered for the membership of the EACP, with the status of the federal minister:

1. Dr. Ashrfaq Ahmad Khan.
2. Dr. Ikram ul Haq, who is an international tax expert also.
3. Mr. Shahid Sattar, who is also an international expert on energy related matters.

4. Dr. Salman Shah.
5. Dr. Muhammad Zubair.
6. Dr. Kaiser Bengali.
7. Mr. Shahid Kardar.
8. Mr. Nadeem ul Haq.
9. Mr. Hafeez Pasha
10. Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman
11. Mr. Asif Sharif

~ Last but not the least, currently rapid and steep devaluation of PKR is eating away every economic gain of under the PTI government’s efforts to revive the economy. Plus devaluation is sharply increasing our foreign debt burden in billions of dollars on almost daily basis. In this regard, if somehow, foreign currency inflow is channelised into Pakistani banks the situation can abruptly improve.

In this connection, like the government is already giving an annual profit of 6.75% (payable bi-annually) on Pakistan Banao Certificates, with full guarantee of government of Pakistan, we can easily, quickly and comfortably get around $10 billion, if, you approve the launch of another scheme of allowing annual profit of 6.75% (payable bi-annually with fully backed GoP guarantee) on fresh foreign currency bank deposits in Pakistan. The beauty of this scheme is that (since this much profit is currently nowhere available in the world) even foreign banks will offer (as happened in India) foreign currency loans (at around 3-4%) to its clients to deposit funds in this scheme. Moreover, God forbid, if, for any reason, desired foreign currency inflows are not attracted in this scheme, government will lose nothing.

The above foreign currency bank deposits scheme should be available for all resident and non resident Pakistanis, under special permission of the GoP (like an amnesty scheme) and depositors NOT asked any questions about their sources of foreign currency funds.

Best Regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

Respected Mr. Imran Khan Sahab.

AoA.

Sir,

Our country of 220 million population can only move forward, if it is absolutely united and totally focussed, on economic emancipation of the teeming millions, rather than busy in infighting and planning to topple one government after the other.

It is the cardinal responsibility of the ruling leadership to unite the country and involve each and every person in nation building, which is not the job of years, but of decades.

Without the involvement of every Pakistani in nation building, there is no other way we can take Pakistan to the comity of developed nations.

We have already wasted all the 73 years, after the independence of Pakistan, in the unaffordable luxury of POLITICS.

Let us not now put the horse of “nation building” before the cart and shun politics for a few decades, by way of complete and absolute involvement of every segment of society, cutting across the lines of party or any other politics of cast, creed, religion and colour etc.

As such, first we need to involve the entire intelligentsia of Pakistan from government, as well as, opposition side, including all learned Pakistanis from the academia in Pakistan and abroad, to compile a Charter of Development for Pakistan (CODP2020), for the next 100 years.

However, the above proposed CODP2020 should have a base to compile and work upon, for which it is suggested to form the Task Forces (mostly to be HEADED by non-PTI non-government members, but PTI and government experts should be members of these Task Forces) on the following subjects, to submit their reports to the Prime Minister, for jumpstarting engine of growth and development of our motherland, in maximum 20 days (even if they have to work day and night).

1. ‪Suggestions for development road map for advanced technologies like Robotics & Artificial Intelligence.

2. Suggestions for utilising social media power and out of box and innovative ways for Population Control.

3. Eradication of Radicalism and elimination of Extremism, increasing Crimes against females and Child population (like acid throwing) & Control of Terrorism.

4. Ways for implementation of Rule of Law for everyone without exception and Legal, Jail and Judicial Reforms.

5. Proposals forPolice Reforms of a modern times Police.

6. Enhancement (specially in the future technological fields) of defence capabilities with special reference to countering the use of 5th & 6th generation war tactics by enemies and use of upper space technologies for defence of motherland and ways for creation of culture of discipline and fitness among the entire male and female population of the country, by compulsory military enrolment in National Guards Service for three years.

7. Suggest ways for a fast track elimination of Polio, Hepatitis and HIV/AIDS by utilising the benefits of social media. Also suggest emergency ways how to make DRUG FREE, our new/young generation (in educational institutions and in society) of boys and girls in particular and overall country population in general.

8. Plans for water conservation and floods control and approvals/consensus for building of future dams and compulsory rain water harvest decisions.

9. Development plans of Alternative Energy Resources, with time bound targets.

10. Suggestions for how to create a culture of R&D in the Educational and Industrial sectors?

11. Blue print for how to make use of Information Technology towards the quest of achieving a quantum leap from the primitive agricultural practices towards the modern agricultural systems, specially for the small holdings poor farmers?

12. Blue print of how to turn around Pakistan into a modern industrial & technological giant and to have a Labour Policy commensurate to that status?

13. Policy for modern practices for Mining & Rare Earth Metals (REM), which can turnaround Pakistan as the richest nation of the world, with its current hidden wealth of over $ 51 trillion, which can be compared with the current total GDP ($53 trillion) of the top 10 countries of the world. This huge wealth can help us a lot in our ascendency in control of the world from the upper space in the coming decades.

14. Proposals for Telecom Policy with special focus on 5G & 6G and its usage in population control and alleviation of poverty.

15. Proposals for Development of Services Sector. It will not out of place to mention that share of services sector in the GDP of USA is 80%.

16. Suggestions for development of Medium and Small Scale industrial base, in a given time frame.

17. Suggestions for world level Tourism facilities, Hotels & Air Taxi services for inaccessible areas.

18. Blue print of Modern Aviation Policy.

19. Suggestions for attaining world’s leadership role in the fields of Science, Technology & Space Research and how to make SUPARCO a world class organisation with active participation of private sector resources.

20. Revamping on modern lines of Real Estate & Buildings Constructions policy and rules already in practice in the modern countries.

21. Practical and doable proposals for our new Education system for the next 100 years with the aim of 100% literacy & minimising the physical burden of books over the back of the child students by using IT Technology.

22. Suggestions for Modern Health policy and facilities for all with special emphasis on general fitness of population with motto of “Prevention is better and cheaper than cure.”

23 Suggestions for maximising e-commerce trade, plastic Banking, Insurance & Investment facilities (specially in the Stock Exchanges) for the poor masses; and quantum increase proposals for foreign exchange remittances from the expatriate nationals. Also to submit proposals for minimising smuggling of contraband items in Pakistan.

24. Suggestions for building sports cities in the far flung areas of the country and proposals for the development of sports Industry and capabilities of our prowess in the modern Olympic Games.

25. Suggestions for how to adapt modern developments in Films, TV, Arts, Cinema & Culture?

26. Proposals for how to become a world leader in Shipping and Maritime business?

27. Proposals for Power, POL & Gas cost reduction ways and doable ways suggestions for reduction of adverse impact fossil energy projects on the environment. Also submit proposals for eliminating circular debt.

28.Suggestions for reduction of taxes & their rates, proposals for minimising corruption in society, increasing tax revenue and suggestions for fast track Poverty Alleviation from our society.

29. Suggestions for a modern environment policy which must have the participation of entire 220 million population with extremely harsh and severe unpardonable penalties ranging from Rigorous Imprisonments to Death sentence.

30. Suggestions for urgent steps to bring to Pakistan an Autonomous Transportation System (fuel less and driver less).

31. Suggestions for devising a new Foreign Policy mainly based on furthering economic interests on Pakistan.

32. Suggestions for development of Pakistan as a top nation producing Halal foods.

33. Suggestions for development of modern and innovative Privatisation Policy to immediately cut the losses of billions of Rupees being incurred by SOE’s.

34. Proposals for controlling with an iron hand the menace of adulteration of food/edible items and fake medicines etc. (which creates a major burden on our health sector budget) with most harsh unpardonable penalties up-to the death sentence.

35. Proposals for improvements in the following sectors:

~ Current Parliamentary System of Pakistan.

~ Current Bureaucratic structure, workings and efficacy of Public Service Commissions and any benefits of direct hirings of experts/technocrats at all levels of government positions.

~ Benefits of outsourcing the job of FBR to some capable private entity which should guarantee 100% increase in tax revenue in two years time.

Best Regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad
03219402157
Lahore.

18 May 2019

Dear Mr. Imran Khan Sahab.

AoA.

Sir,

The current shattered state of economy of Pakistan, wherein, daily steep and unprecedented devaluation of PKR versus the USD, whose interbank rate was higher than the forex market rate a few days back and the Bloomberg has rated PKR as the worst performing currency of Asia, regularly crashing of stock exchange market, unimaginable jump in prices of daily items of use like lemon being sold at Rs.400 per KG, increase in rates of utilities on an unending and continuous basis, exponentially increasing costs of health and education, reflects only one thing that there was now virtually no effective government in Pakistan, to protect the rights of the hapless Pakistani masses from the tricks and vagaries of traders, businessmen, industrialists and bureaucracy of the country.

Sir, the entire population of Pakistan is in severe shock, depression and despondency, due to this sudden economic crisis, severely affecting every Pakistani who is desperately looking towards you as a competent and honest leader and above all a saviour of the rights of the masses of the Pakistanis to act, and act fast to the stem the rot, before this crisis turns into an economic meltdown.

According to Britannica.com “Public authorities face a variety of crises, such as natural disasters and environmental threats, financial meltdowns and terrorist attacks, epidemics and explosions, and information and communication technology (ICT) failures. Crises are not routine events (such as fires or traffic accidents). Crises are inconceivable events that often take politicians, citizens, and reporters by complete surprise. Crises occur when a community of people—an organization, a town, or a nation—perceives an urgent threat to core values or life-sustaining functions that must be urgently dealt with under conditions of deep uncertainty.”

Britannica.com further states that “These dramatic events create tough challenges for public authorities and their organizations. Critical decisions must be made and implemented under considerable time pressure and in the absence of essential information about causes and consequences. Even if the conditions for effective action are severely impeded, citizens expect governmental leaders and public authorities to safeguard them from the threat at hand.”

As such, extraordinary situations demands extraordinary steps.

Under the current scenario the people are fed up and no more ready to listen that Pakistan is suffering severe economic problems due to the loot and plunder of the past decade’s rulers, simply, because now Mr. Imran Khan is the ruler; and if any economic crime was committed in the past, why the responsible politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats are not arrested, their properties not confiscated and the national criminals put behind the bars, as yet, on any of such economic crime charges, by the PTI government?

People also ask why all past government players are roaming free (if they committed economic crimes) and entire burden of the economic crisis has been passed over to the masses, very conveniently by the PTI government?

Does the PTI government wants to punish the poor masses for voting it to rule over the country, without taking to task even a single person of the past regimes for its economic crimes?

Moreover, PTI’s government can not absolve itself of all its responsibilities to improve the economic conditions of the masses, by going the easy and most cruel way of simply increasing rent, rates and taxes and devaluing the currency and then asking the people to give sacrifices, while people’s representatives are enjoying all the fruits of being in power.

People also ask why the PTI government has failed to reduce the massive/huge expenditures on the bureaucratic establishment and why advisors of the cabinet failed on their jobs and even then they have not been removed?

Why absolute austerity is not mandated in the government affairs by law, in these times of severe economic crunch?

Why people are not being told about the past government’s spendings of the huge foreign loans?

Why the energy audit of the IPP’s decided by the cabinet in its first meeting under Mr. Imran Khan as PM, has not yet been conducted?

In view of the foregoing crisis, created under PTI’s tenure of government, you may take all matters in your own hands, declare an economic or national emergency and form an Emergency Advisory Council of Pakistan (EACP) to:

~Devise, execute and monitor all related policies for economic turn around of Pakistan in the shortest possible time

~Immediate steps for stopping of funds leakages. In this regard the World Bank has already estimated about $18bn annual loss to Pakistan economy due to inefficient power sector, the World Bank has warned the government against increasing power rates as a tool to address fiscal challenges in the sector.

~ Immediate steps for reviving industry, agriculture, trade and business with particular reference to services and IT sectors

~ Immediate steps for drastically reducing imports and doubling the exports

~Generation of additional revenues

This EACP should act like a war cabinet of the PM of Pakistan, as the current economic crisis is no less grave in its devastation, than a full fledged war. The following world renowned eminent experts, impeccably honest, highly capable and reputed personalities of Pakistan may be considered for the membership of the EACP, with the status of the federal minister:

1. Dr. Ashrfaq Ahmad Khan.
2. Dr. Ikram ul Haq, who is an international tax expert also.
3. Mr. Shahid Sattar, who is also an international expert on energy related matters.
4. Dr. Salman Shah.
5. Dr. Muhammad Zubair.
6. Dr. Kaiser Bengali.
7. Mr. Shahid Kardar.
8. Mr. Nadeem ul Haq.
9. Mr. Hafeez Pasha
10. Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman
11. Mr. Asif Sharif

Best Regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

20 October 2018

Subject:- IMF loan is like scoring self goal..!

Dear Mr. Imran Khan Sahab,

AoA.

Sir,

It is really baffling to comprehend that the government of PTI and its Finance team is only looking towards the governments of Kingdom of Saudia Arabia and China (as a last resort) to help Pakistan meet its requirements of foreign exchange, before finally going to the IMF for loan.

Sir, let me once again inform you that the conditions of getting loans from IMF has all the potential to destabilise your government sooner than later, by making it highly unpopular among the masses, due to back breaking increase in rates of utilities, which will push further millions of lower middle class, to upper level of poverty and poor class to the abject poverty level.

In view of the foregoing, you are once again requested to kindly replace your entire Finance team (which has no capacity to go beyond easy way outs) and give the highly challenging task to a new team led by a dynamic man like Faisal Vawda, to avert the national financial crisis, by considering following out of the box suggestions, to take Pakistan out of its straitjacket.

1 (a). Pakistan was economically devastated in fighting the American/NATO imposed War on Terror (as a front line State) suffering over $ one trillion losses in the shape of losses of human lives, financial and opportunity costs and damages to its goodwill and infrastructure; one example of which is that during this period Bangladesh moved ahead in education, family planning (1% population growth) and exports (45 billion USD/ year) which consisted mainly of textiles, by getting competitive edge over our textile industry, with zero percent tax for BD produced textile items (in developed countries) like towels and bedsheets etc., while Pakistani textiles were charged 20% tax, resultantly our products became uncompetitive and exports reduced from 25 billion USD to 20 billion USD per year.

1(b). In view of the foregoing, rather than going for borrowing from IMF we should seek (with diplomatic help as well) a moratorium on repayment of loans for five years and side by side implement the following scheme, to build up our foreign exchange reserves, so that economic crisis could be overcome with some out of box thinking to tackle the economic crisis from both supply and demand sides:

1(C). Immediate launching of a scheme for payment of 3% to 5% PA profit (payable bi-annually) on Foreign Currency bank deposits in Pakistan (backed by the sovereign guarantee of the GoP) with a suitable, but attractive fixed period, as suggested below:

~3% PA profit on deposits up to 2 million USD.

~3.5% Profit on deposits over 2 million USD and up to 3 million USD.

~4% profit on deposits over 3 million USD and up to 4 million USD.

~4.5% profit on deposits over 4 million USD and up to 5 million USD.

~5% profit on deposits over 5 million USD.

~The profits on the above scheme should be payable in the USD and should be exempted from ALL taxes and other deductions, as is also the case with Euro and Sukook Bonds, issued by the GoP.

This is a fool proof scheme, sans any risk, [if at all if fails, government will bear no loss] which can boost up our foreign reserves, in a very short time, on extremely cheap rates, as compared to the foreign loans and international bonds, which were sold by the previous government of PMLN, at even 8.25% interest rates: plus undisclosed Tax Exemptions of at least minimum benefits of around 7% (Pakistan will be repaying USD 910 million for USD 500 million Euro Bonds) for which the then PM Mian Nawaz Sharif was requested to hold an inquiry, to fix the responsibility of the culprit(s), who allowed the sale of Euro Bonds, on such a criminally high interest rates.

2. Pakistan may approach REBO Bank and IDB which offer funding at extremely low interest rates of 1% and 2% respectively. Here it must be remembered that although, IMF needs 0.9% interest to cover expenses on loans, yet, harsh conditions it charged 3% interest to Pakistan on its last loan to Pakistan.

3. Pakistan may have tried to get funds from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is operated from Beijing, China.

4. We may consider pledging gold with China or any suitable country for obtaining loan against gold, as India did in July 1991, when Reserve Bank of India pledged 46.91 tonnes of gold with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan to raise $400 million.

5. As detailed proposal has already been submitted to you vide emails titled “Suggestions to recover Pakistani wealth stashed abroad” link:- https://www.snayyar.com/suggestions-to-recover-pakistani-wealth-stashed-abroad.html#sthash.mBhTyTki.dpbs

6. Billions of USD can be easily generated by selling the government lands recently taken back from the encroachers or the government may consider selling the prime properties of President House, vast chunks from the hundreds of Kanals of PM House, the Governor House Lahore or the Prime value land of GOR-1 in Lahore, where in a suitable area, a luxurious world class residential tower can be built, for the residence of the government officers.

Best Regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

Why the government has conveniently buried the issue of recovery of $200 billion Pakistani wealth stashed in Swiss Banks,without giving any weight to the relevant statements of the two Swiss b?

Is there more than what meets the eye?

Why elected and non elected members of the PTI are mum on this issue and not has the courage for questioning their leadership for not digging deeper in this vital issue?

Why the government of Mr. Imran Khan has been misled by his concerned team members that the figure of $200 billion illegal money stashed in the Swiss Banks ($97 billion only in one Swiss Bank) was not worth considering for recovery?

In this regard, Mr. Imran Khan may depute Dr. Ikram ul Haq (world renowned internationally qualified tax expert and a lawyer of Supreme Court) as his special envoy to sort out this issue from the government of Switzerland and other such world countries so that promise of Mr. Imran Khan that he will bring back looted Pakistani wealth is fulfilled at the earliest.

Quote:
“In a detailed response to a question raised by Dr Arif Alvi (MNA), the minister quoted statements by a Swiss banker and a former Swiss government minister: “One of the directors of Credit Suisse AG stated on the record that $97 billion worth of Pakistani capital was deposited only in his bank. Similarly, Micheline Calmy-Rey, a former Swiss foreign minister, is reported to have put the amount of Pakistani money hidden in Switzerland at $200 billion — a statement that was never contradicted,” he revealed.” Unquote.

Link:- https://thelondonpost.net/switzerland-to-return-pakistans-200-billion-in-swiss-banks/

If India can fetch 34 billion dollars in 2013, Pakistan in 2018 can also easily get $ 20 billion, by this scheme in which even foreign banks give loans at 1% to expatriates for investing in home country, at much higher rates.

If India can do it in 2013 why can’t State Bank of Pakistan lure inflows of billions of dollars through discounted foreign-currency swaps or IMF is the only panacea for our economic woes?

In 2013, the Indian central bank lured inflows of about $34 billion through discounted foreign-currency swaps, helping lift the
rupee from a record low.

Link:- https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/worried-about-rupee-government-mulls-tapping-nris/articleshow/65753431.cms

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad
03219402157
Lahore.

FCNR swap deal: What it means for NRIs

Recently the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced several measures to stabilize the Indian
rupee against the US dollar. Among them was a swap deal on FCNR deposits where the RBI has opened a window to the banks to swap fresh FCNR dollar funds, mobilised for a minimum term of three years at a fixed rate of 3.5% per annum for the tenor of the deposit. The swap window will be open until November 30, 2013.
What does this mean and will it impact Non Resident Indians investing in FCNR (B) deposits? We find out.
What is an FCNR account?
An FCNR account is a term deposit account that can be maintained by NRIs and PIOs in foreign currency. This account can be a good option for Non Resident Indians (NRIs) looking to invest in India without worrying about currency risks.
The funds in an FCNR account must necessarily come from your overseas funds. FCNR deposits can be maintained in ‘permitted currency’ which means any a foreign currency which is freely convertible and includes US dollar, Pound Sterling (GBP), Euro, Japanese Yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Danish Krone, Swiss Frank and Swedish Krona among others.
What are the features of FCNR accounts?

You can open an FCNR account for a minimum term of 1 year and maximum term of 5 years. The interest rates vary between terms and from currency to currency. Rates may also vary between banks. For instance, the rate for a 1 year FCNR deposit in US dollar would be in the range of 3-4% while the same for a deposit in Australian dollar would be 6-7%.
This interest is tax free in India. However, you may be subject to tax in the country of your residence for such interest.
Balances in FCNR can be freely repatriated outside India. You can also use the balance in FCNR account for making local payments in India.
How do banks manage FCNR funds?
Banks raise FCNR funds in various foreign currencies. They then sell the foreign currency in exchange for Indian rupees at the prevailing exchange rate and use the Indian rupees for domestic lending. When the FCNR deposit becomes due for maturity, banks would need foreign currency to pay the depositor. Waiting until the date of maturity to purchase foreign currency would leave the bank open to exchange rate risk. In order to protect this risk, banks hedge their FCNR commitments by entering into forward contracts. To explain with an example, if an FCNR deposit was opened today for a term of 1 year, the bank would enter into a forward contract to buy the foreign currency after a year at a fixed exchange rate. Currently the forward rate is at a premium of around 7% per annum. That means, if the exchange rate today is Rs 65 per dollar, banks would enter into a forward contract to buy the dollar at Rs 69.55 per dollar. This way, the bank hedges any uncertainty arising out of exchange rate risk.
What is the FCNR swap deal?

The swap deal was introduced as a means to encourage banks to attract more US dollars into India. The RBI has promised banks a forward rate at a premium of 3.5% per annum for all fresh 3-year FCNR deposits raised between now and November 30, 2013. So instead of hedging at the rate of 7% per annum, banks are getting this swap deal at 3.5% per annum. This acts as an incentive for banks to raise fresh FCNR funds as it lowers the cost of hedging.
This swap deal is open until November 30, 2013 and only for deposits opened in US dollar for a period of over 3 years.
Will this benefit NRIs?

NRIs are likely to be swarmed with offers from banks to open FCNR deposits. For an NRI, the FCNR deposit itself can be an attractive proposition because the interest rates on US dollar deposits are in the range of 3-4% per annum as compared with rates as low as 1% in the US. Further, this interest is tax free in India and there is no currency risk.
The swap deal may not necessarily impact NRIs directly unless banks decide to share their gains and increase the interest rates on these deposits.
However, according to reports, what is happening is that foreign banks are rushing to lend funds to NRIs who can invest the money into FCNR deposits. For instance, an NRI would invest $100 of his own funds and borrow $400 from the US branch of his bank. The interest rate on the loan would be say 1%. The NRI would then open an FCNR account in the Indian branch of the bank and earn interest of 4%. At the end of year 1, he would make a total interest of 4% on his own funds of $100 and a net interest of 3% on the borrowed funds of $400. That makes a total interest of $16 or 16% of the original investment. For banks too, this is a win-win as their loan gets covered by the FCNR deposit and they get access to funds at a lower cost.

Link:- FCNR swap deal: What it means for NRIs – Times of India https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/nri/other-news/FCNR-swap-deal-What-it-means-for-NRIs/articleshow/23309748.cms

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad
03219402157
Lahore.

Subject:-Credibility of any statesman and leader is the most priceless asset, which must never be compromised under any circumstances.

Dear Mr. Imran Khan Sahab.

AoA.

Sir,

Mr. Muhammad Zubair ex. Governor Sindh tonight offered in the ARY News program titled “Power Play” that he can arrange for PTI government, deferment of IMF’s loan repayments for one year.

In this regard, your kind attention is invited towards my proposal (emailed on 10 October 2018) for seeking moratorium on payment of loan instalments from IMF titled “Mr. Prime Minister we have seven other options to avoid IMF loan” posted on 14 October 2018 at www.snayyar.com
link:-

All round confusion in government – Sure recipe for defeat

The details of the one of the seven options to avoid IMF loans are quoted as below:

Quote:

“1 (a). Pakistan was economically devastated in fighting the American/NATO imposed War on Terror (as a front line State) suffering over $ one trillion losses in the shape of losses of human lives, financial and opportunity costs and damages to its goodwill and infrastructure; one example of which is that during this period Bangladesh moved ahead in education, family planning (1% population growth) and exports (45 billion USD/ year) which consisted mainly of textiles, by getting competitive edge over our textile industry, with zero percent tax for BD produced textile items (in developed countries) like towels and bedsheets etc., while Pakistani textiles were charged 20% tax, resultantly our products became uncompetitive and exports reduced from 25 billion USD to 20 billion USD per year.
1(b). In view of the foregoing, rather than going for borrowing from IMF we should seek (with diplomatic help as well) a moratorium on repayment of loans for five years and side by side implement the following scheme, to build up our foreign exchange reserves, so that economic crisis could be overcome with some out of box thinking to tackle the economic crisis from both supply and demand sides:” Unquote.

In this regard, when your government officials sings the mantra in unison that government has no other option except to resort for loans from the IMF, it leaves an adverse impression that government has decided for not to explore any other available option (which are many) and all the anti-poor pre-conditions of loans from the IMF will be accepted, without any hesitation, considering it, as the most easy option, leaving the poor in the lurch.

As such, necessary orders may be issued to all the concerned in the Finance Ministry to submit you a detailed report, why all other available options were not explored, before deciding to accept the loans from the IMF, which torpedoed your stated policy of never seeking loans from the IMF.

Credibility of any statesman and leader is the most priceless asset, which must never be compromised, under any circumstances.

Best Regards,

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad