Loud Thinking

The idea of a Pakistan–Afghanistan Confederation has surfaced multiple times throughout South Asian and Central Asian history.

Though it never materialized, the concept reflected a deeper geopolitical, ethnic, economic, and security-driven logic.

Understanding why such a confederation was proposed and how it could theoretically have been achieved; offers important lessons for future regional cooperation.

1. Historical Context: Why the Idea Emerged

1.1 Shared Geography and Ethnic Linkages

Pakistan and Afghanistan share:

a 2,600 km border,

deep Pashtun ethnic ties,

overlapping tribal regions,

ancient trade routes along the Silk Road.

These connections created a natural cultural and commercial proximity that, at times, encouraged political imagination about a joint bloc.

1.2 Soviet Invasion and Cold War Dynamics

During the 1980s, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan destabilized the region. Some policymakers in Islamabad floated the idea of a loose political or security confederation that could:

counter Soviet influence,

manage refugee flows,

and integrate Afghan resistance groups into a regional strategic framework.

1.3 Security and Strategic Depth Arguments

Pakistan sought strategic depth against India, while Afghanistan needed economic and military support. A confederation appeared to be a win-win proposition to some strategists:

Afghanistan would gain a powerful ally,

Pakistan would gain geographical depth and influence.

1.4 Economic Interdependence

Afghanistan is landlocked and relies heavily on Pakistani ports. Pakistan benefits from Afghan transit trade and access to Central Asian markets. A political or economic confederation could theoretically:

streamline cross-border trade,

boost infrastructure projects,

enable energy corridors (TAPI pipelines, CASA-1000),

and reduce smuggling and informal trade losses.

2. Why the Confederation Never Happened

2.1 Afghan Sovereignty Sensitivities

Afghanistan has a strong historical identity and has resisted foreign dominance for centuries. A confederation was often perceived as:

a threat to Afghan sovereignty,

a disguised Pakistani attempt to influence Afghan politics.

2.2 Durand Line Dispute

The unresolved Durand Line issue, wherein Afghanistan was refusing to recognize the current border; created mistrust. A confederation without a settled border was politically unrealistic.

2.3 Pakistan–India Rivalry

Regional geopolitics complicated the idea:

Afghanistan historically had closer ties with India,

Pakistan feared being encircled by Indo-Afghan alignment, Afghanistan feared becoming a pawn in the Indo-Pak rivalry.

2.4 Political Instability

Both nations faced internal instability:

Afghanistan experienced coups, civil war, warlordism, Taliban rule, and foreign interventions.

Pakistan has navigated its own cycles of military rule, political turbulence, and ethnic tensions.

A confederation requires internal political cohesion; something neither state possessed simultaneously.

3. Was There a Real Need for It?

3.1 Shared Security Challenges

Both countries faced:

militancy,

cross-border terrorism,

drug trafficking,

illegal arms flows.

A joint governance structure might have enabled synchronized policies.

3.2 Economic Complementarity

Pakistan’s industries and ports complement Afghanistan’s natural resources and strategic location. A confederation could have unlocked:

joint rail connectivity,

integrated energy markets,

cooperative water management,

coordinated trade policy across Central and South Asia.

3.3 Regional Power Balancing

A confederation could have:

enhanced negotiating power with India,

reduced reliance on global superpowers,

allowed both nations to act as a unified bridge linking South Asia, Middle East, and Central Asia.

4. How Could Such a Confederation Have Worked?

4.1 A Confederation, not a Merger

A realistic model would resemble:

the European Union, or

the United Arab Republic (Egypt–Syria),

not a full political unification.

4.2 Step 1: Confidence-Building Measures

Before any formal structure:

Recognize the Durand Line through mutual agreement.

Establish joint security commissions.

Facilitate cross-border trade transparency.

Reduce hostile propaganda and distrust.

4.3 Step 2: Economic Integration

A confederation must first be economic:

free trade zones,

joint customs protocols,

shared infrastructure funds,

transit trade modernization.

4.4 Step 3: Defense and Security Coordination

Mutual defense and security mechanisms:

joint border monitoring,

anti-terror intelligence sharing,

coordinated counter-narcotics operations.

 4.5 Step 4: Political Framework

A confederation could be structured as:

two sovereign states,

with a joint council for economic, defense and strategic decisions,

rotating leadership,

and shared institutions (transport, energy, trade).

This model preserves sovereignty while building unity.

5. Modern Possibility: Can It Still Happen?

Today, a full confederation remains unlikely due to:

political sensitivities,

new power dynamics in post-2001 and post-2021 Afghanistan,

external influence (US, India, Russia).

However, partial confederation-like cooperation is still feasible through:

regional economic blocs,

China-led Belt and Road connectivity,

SCO-based security collaboration,

energy and trade corridors.

Ultimately, the spirit of a confederation—coordination, not merger—remains relevant.

6. Conclusion

The idea of a Pakistan–Afghanistan Confederation reflected a strategic logic rooted in geography, shared challenges, and economic interdependence. Although a formal confederation looked a far-fetched suggestion, the underlying idea still offers valuable lessons: peace, stability, and prosperity in the region require cooperation rather than rivalry.

The question is no longer whether a confederation should happen, but how both countries can adopt confederation-like frameworks to secure a stable future. In this context, the Pakistani leadership may directly pursue the proposed confederation between Afghanistan and Pakistan through several influential Pakistani figures who are held in high regard by the most powerful authority within the Afghan Taliban, Amir-ul-Mumineen Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada, a Noorzai Durrani Pashtun from the Tareen sub-tribe.

If Pakistan and Afghanistan succeed in establishing a joint confederation, it would be a game changer of the highest magnitude—bringing unprecedented peace, development, and prosperity to nearly 300 million people in the two brotherly nations, with far-reaching ramifications for the entire South Asian region.

Therefore, the Pakistani leadership must not be discouraged by the challenges of bringing the two brotherly nations closer. They should remember that the real failing lies not in setbacks but in setting ambitions too low. To achieve what seems impossible, one must be willing to think beyond the bounds of the imaginable.

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

Lahore – Pakistan

+92 321 9402157

24 November, 2025   

nayyarahmad51@gmail.com The writer is a senior corporate leader and strategic analyst. His thought-provoking visionary insights have reshaped global discourse, capturing the attention of world leaders. His writings have not only resonated with heads of state and governments but have also influenced the foreign policies of the United States and other major powers.