Loud Thinking

In a high-stakes move to reform the country’s entrenched bureaucracy, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday ordered the swift development of bold recommendations for a comprehensive system to evaluate the performance of federal secretaries, signalling a major overhaul of the civil service. Stressing the urgency of reform, he said that aligning the civil service with international standards was no longer optional but essential for improving governance, adding that these sweeping changes were crucial to bringing the country’s civil administration in line with global best practices.

In this connection, given below are practical, implementable recommendations for the Prime Minister of Pakistan to ensure that his vision for bold, forward-looking civil service reforms is anchored in an AI-enabled performance evaluation system for federal secretaries, one that is credible, bias-resistant, and genuinely transformative, rather than yet another bureaucratic formality.

Below are practical, implementable recommendations for the Prime Minister of Pakistan to ensure that his vision for bold, forward-looking civil service reforms is anchored in an AI-enabled performance evaluation system for federal secretaries, one that is credible, bias-resistant, and genuinely transformative, rather than yet another bureaucratic formality.

1. Establish a Clear, AI-Ready Performance Framework (Before Technology)

Why it matters: AI cannot fix a flawed evaluation design. It only scales what already exists.

Recommendations:

Define 5–7 core performance pillars common to all federal secretaries, such as:

• Policy delivery & outcomes
• Budget utilisation efficiency
• Inter-ministerial coordination
• Reform implementation speed
• Public service impact (citizen-facing results)
• Integrity & compliance

Each pillar should have quantifiable indicators (KPIs) rather than narrative assessments.

Limit discretionary scoring to no more than 15–20% of total evaluation.

👉 This ensures AI works on measurable facts, not personal opinions.

2. Use AI as an “Evaluator of Evidence,” Not an Arbitrator of Power

Key Principle: AI should analyze data, not replace human accountability.

How to apply AI:

Feed AI systems with:

Cabinet decisions implementation timelines

• PSDP project completion data
• Audit reports (PAC, Auditor General)
• Budget absorption rates
• Parliamentary question response times
• Citizen complaint portals (PMDU, Pakistan Citizen Portal)

AI should:

 Detect patterns of delays, inefficiencies, or improvements

 Flag inconsistencies between reported and actual performance

 Compare performance across ministries and over time

👉 AI evaluates evidence, while final decisions remain with elected leadership.

3. Bias Elimination Through Algorithmic Safeguards

To prevent political, regional, or personal bias:

Mandatory safeguards:

  Blind scoring: AI evaluates anonymised performance data (no name, cadre, province).

  Peer benchmarking: Performance compared only with secretaries managing similar-sized ministries.

   Time-series analysis: Focus on improvement trajectory, not one-off outcomes.

   Outlier detection: AI flags unusually high or low scores for independent review.

👉 This protects competent officers from victimisation and exposes underperformance.

4. Introduce 360° Performance Signals, Without Turning It into a Popularity Contest

Balanced inputs should include:

• Ministerial objectives (structured, not open-ended)
• Subordinate feedback (weighted lightly, anonymised)
• Inter-ministerial collaboration scores
• Independent data sources (audits, project dashboards)

AI role:

• Filter emotional or retaliatory feedback
• Identify recurring issues mentioned across multiple sources
• Ignore single-source complaints unless corroborated

👉 This avoids politicisation while still capturing ground realities.

5. Real-Time Dashboards for the Prime Minister’s Office

What the PM should see:

• Live performance dashboards of all federal secretaries
• Red/amber/green status on reform delivery
• Early-warning alerts for delayed flagship initiatives
• Comparative performance trends (quarterly and annual)

Why this is game-changing:

• Moves PM oversight from reactive to predictive
• Reduces dependence on selective briefings
• Makes performance discussions fact-based

6. Link Evaluation Outcomes to Clear Consequences

Without consequences, even the best AI system will fail.

Recommended actions:

 Top 20% performers:

• Accelerated promotions
• Prestigious postings
• International training opportunities

  Bottom 20% (after due process):

• Mandatory performance improvement plans
• Reassignment to less critical roles
• Early retirement options (where legally possible)

👉 Merit must be visible, and underperformance must have costs.

7. Independent AI Governance & Oversight Body

To build trust within the civil service:

 Create an Independent Performance Evaluation Unit reporting directly to the PM

 Include:

• AI experts
• Governance specialists
• Retired senior civil servants with reform credibility

  Mandate annual algorithm audits to ensure:

• No systemic bias
• Transparency in scoring logic
• Compliance with law and service rules

8. Start with a Pilot, Then Scale Fast

Suggested approach:

• Pilot the system in 5 key ministries (Finance, Planning, Energy, Health, Commerce)
• Run parallel evaluations (traditional + AI) for 6 months
• Refine indicators before nationwide rollout

👉 Speed with credibility is better than rushed failure.

9. Communicate Reform as Protection for the Honest Officer

For success, narrative matters.

PM’s messaging should emphasise:

• AI protects officers from arbitrary decisions
• Performance, not connections, will define careers
• Reform is about empowerment, not punishment

👉 This will reduce resistance and win buy-in from competent officers.

Final Strategic Insight

If implemented correctly, an AI-enabled, bias-resistant evaluation system can become:

• The most powerful civil service reform since independence
• A lasting institutional legacy beyond any single government
• A model for provincial and SOE reforms

The key is not technology alone, but disciplined leadership, clear rules, and unwavering political will.

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad

Lahore – Pakistan

+92 321 9402157

18th January, 2026

nayyarahmad51@gmail.com The writer is a senior corporate leader and strategic analyst. His thought-provoking visionary insights have reshaped global discourse, capturing the attention of world leaders. His writings have not only resonated with heads of state and governments but have also influenced the foreign policies of the United States and other major powers.