Loud Thinking

Archive for the ‘My Views’ Category

“The worst thing that happens to you may be the best thing for you if you don’t let it get the best of you.”

— Will Rogers

“Manners are a sensitive awareness of the feelings of others. If you have that awareness, you have good manners, no matter what fork you use.”

—Emily Post (1872-1960)
American Author On Etiquette

Pakistanis beware of being gassed (those using gas of Rs.500/ month up till now may well be paying up to Rs.5000/month) in this Economy of loans & corruption .http://t.co/MFKF1ASCRU

Massive increase in gas tariff likely

Khaleeq Kiani

Published about 6 hours ago

.—AFP/File

ISLAMABAD: Amid a controversy over excessive power billing, the government is set to face another wave of public outcry as gas tariff for all categories of consumers, including domestic, is likely to be increased by three to five times in a month or so.
The phenomenal increase is anticipated in the wake of failure of the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) and the federal government to notify consumer prices over the last four months.

“Our estimate is that a domestic consumer who receives a monthly bill of Rs500 will get a bill of about Rs5,000,” an Ogra official told Dawn.

Know more: PM orders fresh probe into overbilling

It could create a political crisis for the government as the people would forget power over-billing, he said.

A part of the surge would be caused by higher consumption in winter, but the major increase would come because of recovery of Ogra-determined revenue from consumers in eight months instead of 12 months.

The problem emanates from the inability of the government to advise the regulator how a Rs35 billion tariff increase be passed on to different categories of consumers within the stipulated time.

As a consequence, Ogra did not notify the consumer tariff by the deadline of July 1.
The Ogra law requires the government to advise the regulator about the adjustment in consumer tariff on the basis of prescribed price set by Ogra for two gas utilities. In case, the government fails to advise Ogra about the subsidy it wants to provide from the budget or through cross-subsidisation among different consumer categories in 15 days, the regulator is legally bound to issue a consumer tariff notification based on prices determined by it.

“Ogra has failed to meet its legal obligation for four months,” the official said. The private shareholders have started sending legal notices to the regulator and the government to take the matter to the court.

Informed sources said Ogra Chairman Saeed Ahmed Khan had repeatedly asked the government to advise it about the subsidy portion. Last week, he is reported to have written a strongly worded letter to the secretaries of the cabinet division and the petroleum ministry about the government’s inability to come up with an advice and the legal challenge arising out of the notices.

They said Mr Khan had warned that the regulator had determined around 14 per cent increase in average tariff on the basis of full year billing, but the average increase had now gone beyond 20pc because Rs50bn would now have to be recovered in eight months.
The sources said legal experts had advised Ogra to issue a notification in the first week of this month to avoid being dragged in the courts.

On top of that, Ogra will be required to notify consumer tariff at the rate of Rs470 per unit for each category of consumers irrespective of existing lowest tariff slab of Rs106 per unit for domestic consumers.

NEGATIVE EQUITY: According to an analyst, unless the increase is recovered from consumers, the capital market equities of the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) and the Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) can turn into negative. The SNGPL’s equity has been estimated to be Rs15bn in the negative.

The sources said the managing directors of the two gas utilities had been interacting with the minister for petroleum and natural resources, but to no avail.

Recently, they had an ‘SOS’ meeting with Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and told him that the balance sheets of the companies would be in the red and prices of their shares would plunge if the government did not immediately intervene.

Ogra had worked out 14pc increase in average gas rates in July on the basis of 4.5pc unaccounted for gas (UFG) losses to meet revenue requirements for 2013-14 through a public hearing.

This is in addition to Rs50bn the government had earlier asked Ogra to recover from consumers to meet losses of the two utilities for 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 on account of gas theft, non-recovery of dues because of law and order situation, increase in retail network and sabotage.

The ministry of petroleum and natural resources had recommended that the amount should be recovered through gas tariff by allowing higher UFG losses (up to 7pc) to bail out the gas companies.

In its estimates sent to the government, the Ogra had approved an increase of Rs58.29 per MMBTU (million British thermal unit) for the SNGPL and Rs22.90 per MMBTU for the SSGC with a maximum prescribed price of Rs469 per MMBTU.

Under the law, the government can advise Ogra to fix different rates for different consumer categories like domestic, commercial, industrial, power sector and cement but remaining within the average rate approved by the regulator.

Because of political considerations, the government has been passing on higher tariff increase to industrial and commercial consumers and lower tariff increase to domestic consumers through cross subsidisation.

Published in Dawn, November 4th , 2014.

Pak vs NZ cricket series schedule of one 3 day match, three Test matches, Two T20 matches and five ODI matches.
(ESPNcricinfo.com)

Mon Nov 3 – Wed Nov 5
06:00 GMT | 10:00 local
11:00 PKT Pakistan A v New Zealanders
Sharjah Cricket Stadium 24 – 32° C

Sun Nov 9 – Thu Nov 13
06:00 GMT | 10:00 local
11:00 PKT 1st Test – New Zealand v Pakistan
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi 21 – 31° C

Mon Nov 17 – Fri Nov 21
06:00 GMT | 10:00 local
11:00 PKT 2nd Test – New Zealand v Pakistan
Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Wed Nov 26 – Sun Nov 30
06:00 GMT | 10:00 local
11:00 PKT 3rd Test – New Zealand v Pakistan
Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Thu Dec 4 (20 ovs)
16:00 GMT | 20:00 local
21:00 PKT 1st T20I – New Zealand v Pakistan
Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Fri Dec 5 (20 ovs)
16:00 GMT | 20:00 local
21:00 PKT 2nd T20I – New Zealand v Pakistan
Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Mon Dec 8 (50 ovs)
11:00 GMT | 15:00 local
16:00 PKT 1st ODI – New Zealand v Pakistan
Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Fri Dec 12 (50 ovs)
11:00 GMT | 15:00 local
16:00 PKT 2nd ODI – New Zealand v Pakistan
Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Sun Dec 14 (50 ovs)
11:00 GMT | 15:00 local
16:00 PKT 3rd ODI – New Zealand v Pakistan
Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Wed Dec 17 (50 ovs)
11:00 GMT | 15:00 local
16:00 PKT 4th ODI – New Zealand v Pakistan
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Fri Dec 19 (50 ovs)
11:00 GMT | 15:00 local
16:00 PKT 5th ODI – New Zealand v Pakistan
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Economy of loans & corruption .http://t.co/MFKF1ASCRU

Economy of loans by loans and for loans..! or the economy of corruption by corruption and for corruption…?

Posted by Syed Nayyar Uddin on July 8, 2014 in Action Plan to Revive Pak Economy, Corruption, My Views,Pak Loan Write-off, Pakistan, Politics, World Bank Affairs | Edit |
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My comments on the below mentioned news:

If I were the PM, would first replace the finance minister before giving the go ahead for any mini budget.

Unfortunately, this FM has neither the vision nor the will to act upon any out of box thinking.

He can only think the easy way of taking loans (on harsh conditions) and increasing the burden on general public (which pays the power and gas bills honestly) by increasing the utility charges one way or the other.

Our government and the FM is least bothered to recover huge amounts of utility bills and taxes from the very influential tax evaders and electricity and gas thieves.

Our present government has also miserably failed in curbing the massive corruption in the country, which has the magnitude almost equal to the budgeted expenses of the year 14-15 i.e., Rs.4 trillion; which also means that the size of our black economy is equal to the white economy. And perhaps this size of corruption (Rs.12 billion/day according to the former Chairman NAB) may not be prevailing in any other country, where white and black economies are almost equal; and still the government is still looking the other way….but then the question arises why the government is silent over this massive corruption, tax evasion and utilities theft; which is eating away the very foundations of the country’s economy?

This way PMLN’s government gives an incentive to the dishonest and punishment to the honest citizens.

News item of Express Tribune:
$6.7b IMF bailout: If needed, Pakistan may introduce mini-budget

By Shahbaz RanaPublished: July 8, 2014

Loan conditions: Rs1.4tr is IMF’s budget deficit target for Pakistan for 2014-15. PHOTO: FILE
ISLAMABAD:

In a bid to keep the $6.7 billion bailout programme afloat, Pakistan has assured the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will introduce a mini-budget and slow down development spending to create a cushion of Rs145 billion in case problems arise in delivering the budget deficit target.

“To help ensure programme targets can be met, the [Pakistani] authorities have identified several contingency measures that can be implemented if the expected fiscal adjustment begins to fall short of the objective,” an IMF report revealed on Monday.

The objective IMF mentions is keeping the budget deficit – the gap between income and expenses – equal to 4.8% of the country’s GDP or Rs1.398 trillion.

This is lower by 0.1% of the GDP – or Rs32 billion – than the target approved by Parliament.

According to the written assurance, the government, on the revenue side, plans to eliminate statutory regulatory orders (SROs) in fiscal year 2015-16 if tax revenues fall below the level envisaged in the programme. For 2015-16, the government has already given an SRO-elimination plan that promises slating the orders equivalent to 0.3% of the GDP or Rs81 billion at the current size of the economy.

These Rs81 billion measures will be over and above the Rs231 billion net new taxes that the government imposed from July 1.

For the new fiscal, the government has set a Rs2.81 trillion tax target that many, including the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), privately admits is unachievable.

“The chances of a mini-budget are high as FBR cannot collect more than Rs2.6 to Rs2.65 trillion in this fiscal year … this is what I told the finance minister before the finalisation of the budget,” said Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, a renowned economist and member of the Economic Advisory Council.

“On the expenditure side, we will again reduce expenditure allocations in the first nine months of the year compared to the budget to create a reserve against any shortfall,” Finance Minister Ishaq Dar assured the IMF.

This policy is consistent with a contingency plan that the government adopted in the previous financial year, which led to a severe under-spending on the development side.

Pakistan has assured that these measures could yield savings amounting to 0.5% of the GDP or Rs145 billion. “In any case, we stand ready to take compensatory measures as needed, including adjustment on the revenue side, to reach our fiscal target,” the finance minister told the IMF.

According to independent economists, such policies are anti-growth and will adversely affect the current fiscal year’s economic growth rate target of 5.1%. Apparently, the IMF doesn’t trust the government will achieve this target. “For FY2014-15, the economy is forecast to expand by around 4%,” the international lender noted in its report.

New surcharge

Pakistan has also assured the IMF that it will slap a new surcharge on electricity consumers to recover the circular debt if the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) rejected its plan to recover circular debt from consumers by increasing tariffs. The report puts the total circular debt at Rs500 billion.

New conditions

The IMF has imposed four new conditions on Pakistan after the government showed reluctance in reforming some of the critical areas. These conditions, known as structural benchmarks, are steps to give real operational independence to the State Bank (SBP).

The second new condition is filling vacancies in the NEPRA board by end of current month.

The third condition is offering minority shares in UBL and PPL to domestic and international investors, which has been met.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 8th, 2014.

“Good manners will open doors that the best education cannot.”

—Clarence Thomas (born 1948)
United States Supreme Court Justice

My E-mail dt. 6 July, 2009 to Hillary Clinton on President Obama’s Promise for Change.

http://www.friendskorner.com/forum/f85/nayyars-e-mail-hillary-clinton-president-obamas-promise-change-126460/

Pakistan inflicted upon Australia their sixth consecutive Test loss in Asia © Getty Images
356 Pakistan’s margin of victory in this Test against Australia. This is Pakistan’s biggest-ever Test win in terms of runs. Their previous biggest was by 341 runs, against India, at Karachi in 2006.

34 Years since Australia have lost a Test by a bigger margin. They have only ever lost two Tests by a bigger margin, the biggest being by 675 runs against England in 1928.

9 Hundreds scored by Pakistan’s batsmen during this series, the most by any team in a two-match series. No other team has ever scored more than six hundreds in a two-Test series against a top-eight team.

-54.5 Australia’s average differential in this series, the worst in their Test history. The average differential is the difference between a team’s batting average and bowling average. Australia’s batting average in this series was 25.65, while their bowling average was 80.15.

14 Tests Pakistan have won under Misbah-ul-Haq. Misbah now holds the joint record for the most Test wins by a Pakistan captain, along with Imran Khan and Javed Miandad. However, Misbah has only captained Pakistan in 31 Tests, while Miandad and Imran led in 34 and 48 respectively.

20 Years since Pakistan have won a Test series against Australia. The last time Pakistan beat Australia in a Test series was in 1994, when they won a three-match series 1-0 at home. Since then, Pakistan have lost six and drawn one series against Australia.

6 Consecutive Tests Australia have now lost in Asia. They have only won one Test on Asian soil in the last 10 years, excluding Tests against Bangladesh. They have played 16 Tests in this period, and lost nine Tests to India, and two against Pakistan. Their only victory came against Sri Lanka in 2011.

1 Tests that Pakistan have lost in their last three Test series against non-subcontinental teams in the UAE. They have played seven Tests against Australia, South Africa and England, winning six of them and only losing one, to South Africa.

8 Runs scored by Australia while losing their last five wickets. It has been 35 years since Australia have lost their last five wickets for fewer runs against Pakistan. They lost their last five wickets for only four runs at Melbourne in 1979. That day, they lost their last seven wickets for just five runs.

Bishen Jeswant is a stats sub editor at ESPNCricinfo. @bishen_jeswant

Feeds: Bishen Jeswant
© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

ESPNcricinfo

Pakistan up to No. 3 in Test rankings
Following their 2-0 thumping of Australia, Pakistan have moved up to No. 3 in the ICC’s Test ranking, leapfrogging England, Sri Lanka and India.
This is Pakistan’s best ranking since January 2007, when they had claimed third after winning a Test against South Africa in South Africa – the hosts won that series 2-1.
Australia have not dropped out of second place despite being whitewashed, but the gap to South Africa at No. 1 has widened.